Small business optimism soars in anticipation of Trump 2.0

The anticipation of Donald Trump returning to the White House sparked a surge of optimism on Main Street, according to multiple post-election surveys.

The National Federation of Independent Business' (NFIB) latest Small Business Optimism Index jumped 8 points to 101.7 in November, with the election results indicating a significant shift in economic policy from the Biden-Harris administration, breaking a 34-month streak of record-high uncertainty with the highest reading since June 2021.

That's the first time the reading has risen above the 50-year average over the past 2.5 years. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, nine increased, none decreased, and one was unchanged last month from October.

"In a nutshell, economic policy matters, and there's no doubt that the election results spurred a lot of the optimism, that surge in optimism, that we saw in our monthly economic survey," NFIB President Brad Close told "Bloomberg: The Close" this week. 

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"Small business owners are looking forward to an administration coming in that's going to address the concerns that the little guys — half the economy in America — really cares about, and that's tax policy, that's cutting regulations and getting the economy going again," Close added.

In the days following election night, gig platform Fiverr conducted its own poll of business owners, and found almost 90% were optimistic about the future, particularly those within sectors at the center of the electoral cycle, such as education (92%), finance (89%) and retail (89%).

Eighty-five percent of respondents told Fiverr they believe that Trump will improve the economic situation for small businesses, with higher rates of optimism among larger organizations, at 89% among businesses with over 100 employees.

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According to the survey, both male (85%) and female (83%) business owners remain hopeful for the new administration and look forward to business growth — with nearly 92% of women-led businesses saying they expect increased revenues in the new year.

The NFIB's Close said a lot of the optimism can be attributed to the hope that Trump's signature tax cuts from his first term will be extended in his second, given that Republicans now control not only the White House, but both chambers of Congress.

"If you look at one of the biggest issues that small business owners are concerned about, the Small Business Deduction, their ability to deduct 20% of their small business income on their business taxes, that's huge," Close told Bloomberg. 

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"That was created in 2017, right, so the economy took off after that tax bill went through," he said. "That policy expires in a year. Small business owners know that, and they are very optimistic that the incoming administration — which has said that they want to extend and make that provision permanent — is ready to get started on that."